Transaction Sequencing and House Price Pressures

Abstract

We use a unique data set of individual housing transaction histories from Norway and a novel shift-share design to show that temporary changes in the transaction sequencing decisions of moving homeowners—whether to buy first and then sell or vice versa—cause temporary local increases in house prices and seller liquidity. Our findings are consistent with a simple theory of how transaction sequencing decisions impact house prices in a frictional housing market. We also provide the first causal estimate of the elasticity of house prices to market tightness, which is around 0.1. Overall, our findings highlight the importance of trading frictions and supply-demand imbalances for housing market dynamics. This paper was accepted by Bo Becker, finance. Funding: This work was supported by Norges Forskningsråd [Grant 274678: Frictions in the Housing Market]. Supplemental Material: The online appendix and data files are available at https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2024.08149 .

中文摘要

我们利用挪威独特的个人住房交易历史数据集和一种新颖的份额-转移设计，证明了搬家房主交易顺序决策的临时变化——即先买后卖或先卖后买——会导致当地房价和卖方流动性的暂时性上升。我们的发现与一个关于交易顺序决策如何在摩擦性住房市场中影响房价的简单理论一致。我们还首次提供了房价对市场紧度的弹性因果估计，约为0.1。总体而言，我们的发现强调了交易摩擦和供需失衡对住房市场动态的重要性。本文由Bo Becker（金融领域）接受。资助：本研究由挪威研究理事会资助[Grant 274678: 住房市场摩擦]。补充材料：在线附录和数据文件可在https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2024.08149获取。